Seems likely that it is inevitable that we will see some creative virtual porn. Arguably there has been animated porn for years. VR feels like the next leap to me.

I just don't see ai replacing porn but living along side it.

Goldmember's Porn Pantheon

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this stuff is basically currently at the stage that CGI in movies was back in the 90s when it would take a farm of computers days to generate a single frame of convincing CGI.

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The costs to make porn the old-fashioned way are pretty low, especially if we are talking about "gonzo" type productions. The performers don't get paid too much. Sets are minimal. Decent cameras and lighting are reasonably priced. Onlyfans has shown how many people can afford a minimally acceptable shooting setup.

Anything AI based is going to take some decent computing power, but that will diminish over time. The software cost however will be quite high, whether developed by the studio in house, or purchased as a package. Those costs, are likely to remain high, as the software will need continued development, updates, etc.

Simply put, tech folks get paid more than all but the biggest pornstars, and likely always will. Who's going to pay more to produce porn that looks sorta realistic when it will be cheaper to film the actual act?

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It is true that the upfront cost of setting up a software capable of producing realistic porn via machine learning is going to be much higher, likely gravitating in the order of 7.5 million dollars. You can arrive at this figure simply by multiplying 10 developers earning 150k/year for 5 years. Yet the rate or return is going to be so massive, this cost is likely to be nearly irrelevant for any serious investor. 7.5kk might impress regulars, but this is peanuts for an enterprise such as Pornhub, earning half a billion in revenue per year. Besides, it is possible that a grant funded team of researchers or PhD students will already have done 90% of the necessary work on their own, attempting to generate ordinary video, after which a third party would only need to reassign the code to operate on a porn database, thus bringing the costs down to almost nothing.

If you pair GPT with decent text to speech and sync it to video, camgirls are on the hook too.
My present visualization is as follows:
3 years: first fully AI generated porn in good resolution and relatively stable frame by frame, though not economically sensible to mass produce.
5 years: AI generated porn starts creeping up in significative numbers and starts gaining momentum and popularity.
10 years: 50% of porn content is AI generated.
15 years: virtually all new porn is AI generated, with only niche or personalized types of content surviving, due to humans wanting to interact with other humans, despite being incapable of differentiating.

Funily, prostitution is going to survive just fine for a while, since physical touch seems to be much harder to simulate than images or audio, so many porn stars and cam girls could start escorting, of the ones that don't already.

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Patrick Parker || t: @ArtfulPorn

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I suspect both will be available, and there will be customers for both.

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The first type is arguably already here: just search for "bold glamour filter" and you can see it. It's a feature on tiktok where a person's face is instantly "glamourized." This clip features some example. To me the most dramatic moment is the end when the reporter, who looks to be about 40 if not older, tries the filter herself. If someone uses this to shoot a porn video, how can you know what they actually look like?

The second type is not that far away. Here's a clip from Unreal Engine 5. To those not familiar, this is a software used to create many high end video games. I must say the animated images are still not quite realistic, but they are getting very close, and the shocking thing is just how seemingly easy and fast it is becoming. It's easy for me to imagine that in the not-too-distant future, you can shoot a scene with one or two real person, and then use these as "templates" to create many, many more "new" scenes featuring the same people, except these are truly realistic animations.

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